Schooling and education predictions for the 2020's

With the arrival of a new decade, many people have looked back at progress made by mankind over the last ten years. Others have made predictions for the next ten years. I have decided to join in and make predictions for the 2020's.


The most obvious area will be EdTech. We will see new technology introduced to the schools. Most will fit one of two patterns. Some will be attempts to add to the traditional schooling system. Others will try to digitize the traditional schooling model. There will likely be at least some attempts to look at how technology could be used for education that doesn't conform to what we are already doing, but nothing along these lines will go anywhere.

We will see a rise in the use of micro-credentials. Conventional schools will try to control micro-credentials. Some might try to factor in practical experience, but nearly all programs will require at least some time in a formal class. Most of these credentials will essentially allow credentials in a formal schooling environment focused on specific credentials instead of promoting a full load of classes. These credentials will be more affordable, but will maintain the idea that we must all be a part of the same anti-educational anti-individual schooling system.

We will see a rise in trade and vocational schools. The government will try to keep control of these schools consistent with the more conventional college model. The differences between the types of schools will be in the subjects taught. The teaching methodology will converge to the point of being insignificant.

There will be one or two big reform efforts. These efforts will be from supporters of our current schooling model. Instead of looking for alternatives to ideas that don't work, we will look for ways to strengthen what we are already doing wrong. This could include more attempts at enforcing standards despite the predictable and repeated failures that we have already seen. By strengthening our mistakes, we will find that reform was a bad idea. This will embolden teachers who want to protect the status quo.

Schools will be worse than they are today, but the changes overall will be insignificant. Pro-schooling propaganda will continue to become more effective. This will create a trade-off. I suspect that the increased suffering will edge out the improvements to the propaganda, so there might be a slight increase in families looking for alternatives.

Schools in 2030 will look very much like they do in 2020, which is nearly identical to the schools in 2010, 2000, 1990, and so on. We will follow the same pattern that we always have. All changes during this time will be exaggerated, and teaching will remain a stagnant profession. We will face the same problems, but our loyalty to the schools will prevent us from making the changes we needed more than a century ago.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic. Maybe I'm playing it safe. I'm just not sold on the idea that the next decade will play out in any other manner than previous decades. Our schools have been disastrous to society, but we're too afraid to look for something better. We're too afraid to risk our schools in an attempt to find a better approach to education.